Liberty Evidence Engine

Evidence · 2026-08-24

Crime pockets: how concentrated is U.S. homicide in major cities?

National murder totals hide geography. Use the interactive explorer on 2023 major-city homicide counts against the FBI national murder estimate: drag Top N, rank by count or rate, filter, drop Chicago, and watch the national share move. Real counts; not a causal gun-law model.

Download city CSV Adjust the cut Methods

Interactive explorer · real city counts

Adjust the cut. Watch the national share move.

Loading city panel…

Cities in cut

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Homicides in cut

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Share of national estimate

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Approx. population in cut

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Full panel: —. National denominator: 18253 (FBI estimated U.S. murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, 2023). Recomputed in your browser from the downloadable CSV — no black box.

Cities in this ranking

Rows marked in cut are inside your current Top N after filters.

# City St Homicides Rate/100k % national Pop (approx)

Preset concentration cuts

Static reference table. Use the explorer above to try other settings.

cut cities_in_cut homicides_in_cut share_of_national_murder_estimate_pct approx_population_in_cut note
Top 5 cities in panel 5 2158 11.8 15408242 Chicago, Philadelphia, Memphis, New York City, Houston
Top 10 cities in panel 10 3519 19.3 22410964 Chicago, Philadelphia, Memphis, New York City, Houston, Los Angeles, Washington DC, Baltimore, Detroit, Dallas
Top 15 cities in panel 15 4485 24.6 26370812 Chicago, Philadelphia, Memphis, New York City, Houston, Los Angeles, Washington DC, Baltimore, Detroit, Dallas, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Phoenix, Kansas City, Milwaukee
Top 25 cities in panel 25 5893 32.3 33811824 All cities in this large-city panel
Top 10 excluding Chicago 10 3118 17.1 20627133 Sensitivity: one-city dependence
All 25 cities in panel 25 5893 32.3 33811824 Large cities only - not every US city

Methods & limits

Question. When policy debates quote one national homicide or murder number, how much of that harm is concentrated in a relatively small set of major urban places — and how sensitive is that picture to which cities you include?

  • This page measures geographic concentration, not the effect of any gun law. It is an anti-omitted-variable exhibit: national slogans bury urban structure. A national murder rate hides the cities; a national gun-stock number hides the same. Harm is geographically concentrated; firearm ownership is not. This page measures place, not stock, and is not a guns-versus-murder scatter.
  • City numerators are 2023 calendar-year homicide/murder counts as reported in major-city police year-end figures and widely cited local compilations (city proper / primary agency, not always metro CSA).
  • National denominator is the FBI Crime in the Nation 2023 estimated total for murder and nonnegligent manslaughter (18,253). City PD counts and FBI estimates are related but not definitionally identical; shares are illustrative concentration, not an accounting identity to the last case.
  • Interactive explorer recomputes in the browser from the downloadable city CSV: Top N slider, rank by homicide count or approx rate, optional min-rate filter, exclude Chicago sensitivity, preset chips, shareable URL query (?n=&ex=&sort=&minrate=).
  • Population figures are approximate recent city estimates for rate context only; ranking for cuts is by homicide count, not rate.
  • This page does not estimate the effect of carry laws or ownership elasticities. Those questions are out of scope here. Defensive gun use is a different metric — see Why defensive-gun-use estimates disagree.
Limitations. Panel is 25 large reporting cities, not a census of all U.S. places. Within-city crime is even more concentrated in a few neighborhoods — this page stops at city totals. Agency definitions, late clears, and justifiable homicide handling can differ. NIBRS/SRS transition affects national series. Do not treat share-of-national as proof that rural America has no violence or that any statewide statute caused the pattern. Tract-level pocket maps and full county panels are future work.

Sources.

  • FBI — Crime in the Nation / UCR murder estimates (2023) — National murder and nonnegligent manslaughter estimate used as denominator.
  • Major-city police year-end crime statistics (2023) — City homicide counts from primary agency YE releases and contemporaneous local reporting (NYPD, LAPD, CPD, etc.). See source_note column in the city CSV.
  • Concentration literature (context) — Crime concentration in small geographic units is a long-standing empirical regularity (e.g. Weisburd law of crime concentration). This page is a transparent national-to-city illustration, not a full neighborhood analysis.
  • LEE — Why defensive-gun-use estimates disagree — DGU is a different metric: instrument range, not a guns-versus-murder scatter.